Severe weather shouldn’t become a widespread problem today. We do still have a level one risk of severe weather across portions of West-Central Texas east into the Big Country. The spatial area of the risk has been reduced compared to our blog post this morning.
A few strong to marginally severe storms are expected to form between Lubbock and Midland by 5 PM. These storms could produce large hail and localized damaging wind gusts over 65 MPH. Upscale growth into a small squall line or cluster will probably occur. This small cluster will move east toward the Big Country in the 6 to 8 PM timeframe. Localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH along with some hail can be expected. Storms will be weakening as they approach and move east of Highway 83 by mid-evening.
346PM: Simulated model radar through the overnight hours. Complex of strong storms moves east into the Big Country early this evening. More widespread showers tonight into Wednesday that'll spread south and east. #txwx pic.twitter.com/zC4ICA6JdU
— Texas Storm Chasers (@TxStormChasers) April 24, 2018
Showers will become more numerous overnight and into the morning hours on Wednesday across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, and the Big Country. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated with this activity tonight.
During the day Wednesday, we’ll see rain chances spread farther south and east. A few storms may also occur, but severe weather is unlikely. An exception may be in the Edwards Plateau into the middle Rio Grande Valley. There may be a few stronger storms that move east across the international border. Some of those storms could be stronger with a threat of localized damaging wind gusts and hail.
Rain chances will continue Wednesday Night across the eastern and southeastern half of Texas. A couple of thunderstorms may also occur. The best chance for rain will be across East Texas. Our precipitation chances will conclude Thursday morning.
The heaviest rainfall amounts look to be in association with the stronger storms this evening in the Big Country and potentially stronger storms in the Middle Rio Grande Valley tomorrow. We’re not talking overly impressive rainfall amounts, but any rain in the drought-stricken regions is good news. Rainfall amounts and associated rain chances look to be lowest across the Coastal Plains north into the Brazos Valley.