While the majority of the day will remain quiet, we’ll see a chance for some high-based showers across western Texas and southeastern NM later this afternoon as an upper level disturbance arrives carrying some mid-level moisture along with it. A Marginal Risk(Level 1) has been outlined for portions of northwest TX and the Big Country region for a few isolated strong to severe storms overnight with the primary threat being hail and high winds. While not a high probability, some dry lightning may also be a possibility, especially across the Rolling Plains and Big Country regions where we’ll see dewpoints only in the 40s as this disturbance passes overhead later today and into tonight. So overall, not a huge threat since the capping inversion is forecast to remain fairly strong today, but don’t be surprised if you’re awakened in the middle of the night by a few claps of thunder or the pitter patter of of rain on the roof.
A weak cold front has settled across the panhandle and into the western parts of north central Texas and down into the northern Big Country region. While temps behind it are not that much cooler, it will help to keep a lid on the abnormally high temps we’ve seen across the western half of the state the last several days. South of the front, we’ll be seeing highs range from about 10 to 20 degrees above normal with much of that range dependent upon the range of cloud cover expected today. Earlier cloud cover across the southern half of the state is beginning to erode, but we’ll still see some stick around for the remainder of the afternoon. Where we have clearing, temps will tend to be higher.
Conditional chances for storm development returns tomorrow afternoon and evening along the dryline in western north Texas. It will be highly conditional upon the cap breaking…which at this point looks less likely than likely. However, if we can achieve enough clearing and heating along the dryline, we may see temps rise sufficiently to assist with breaking the cap and see one or two storms develop. IF this happens, sufficient moisture, wind shear and mid to upper level energy will be in place to produce severe weather in the form of one or two supercell storms with large hail as the main threat. Again…a very isolated threat which means most will not see any threats from severe weather.