Isolated severe thunderstorms have developed across the eastern Concho Valley and Big Country. The strongest of these storms are severe with a large hail threat. We anticipate additional thunderstorms will develop over the next couple of hours west and southwest of the D/FW Metroplex.

The timeframe for thunderstorm impacts to the D/FW Metroplex is 5 PM to 8 PM. Additional thunderstorms, should they develop, could impact D/FW after 8 PM.

Thunderstorms may grow upscale into a small cluster by the late afternoon. These storms will move east around 25 MPH. The strongest storms may contain very large hail up to the size of baseballs, localized damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH, and even a low-end tornado threat.

Simulated 18Z HRRR model radar through the night

We’ll have to watch for any localized increased tornado potential as thunderstorms approach Interstate 35. There may be a pocket of slightly increased wind shear and low-level instability. Otherwise, hail will be the most common hazard today.

After sunset, a weakening trend should occur. Storms may remain strong to severe as they move east of Interstate 45 and towards Tyler. Although the largest hail sizes should occur before 8 PM. Multiple ’rounds’ of storms may occur today with more storms firing off to the west as the first round moves east.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through 11 PM for the southern half of North Texas and portions of East Texas. Parker, Tarrant, Dallas, and Kaufman counties are included in this watch. Wise, Denton, Collin, and Rockwall counties are not. The highest severe thunderstorm potential does look to be immediately south of the D/FW Metroplex, but it is way too close to say definitively. Keep an eye on the radar.