Weather radar at 2:14 AM CT

A peek at the state radar at 2 AM shows scattered showers, but nothing noteworthy. That will certainly not be the case later this morning. Fog has become dense across North Texas into Northeast Texas. A warm front slowly moving north into those regions is creating dense fog. The location of that warm front will be one of several ingredients to watch for later today.

12 AM Severe Weather Outlook Updates

There have been a few changes with the new severe weather outlook. Please don’t take the exact location of the lines/risks too literally. Thunderstorms do not read risk maps. The first change is the removal of the level 3 enhanced risk from Northeast Texas. The higher the risk number the more widespread the threat of severe weather is expected to become. Let me say that I would not be surprised in the least to see the enhanced risk be added back in later updates.

The standard level 2 risk runs east of a Gainesville to Fort Worth to Hillsboro to Fairfield to Jacksonville to Jasper line. Those within this ‘standard’ risk level have a 15% chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of their location. Think about it this way – you have a 1 in 5 chance of something severe happening nearby. Most of the D/FW Metroplex east through Northeast Texas and East Texas are in the level 2 risk zone. The level 3 ‘enhanced’ risk now starts just east of the Texas/Lousiana/Arkansas intersection.

There remain a few uncertainties with today’s storm setup. An initial round of thunderstorms will be possible this morning across the Hill Country into North Texas and Northeast Texas. Some of these morning storms may produce large hail. The main round of potentially severe weather is expected to begin as soon as 10 AM across North Texas.

Severe Weather Timing and Threats

12AM HRRR – Simulated model radar through the afternoon. Times are in eastern on the top-right part of the graphic.
* MODEL DATA – DON’T EXPECT IT TO PLAY OUT EXACTLY AS DEPICTED IN REAL LIFE *

A squall line is expected to form along with a dryline/cool front as it nears Interstate 35 by lunch-time. Some storms in this line could pack a punch with large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. This line of storms will push east and impact Northeast Texas and East Texas this afternoon. There is concern that isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the squall line. Any supercells that develop ahead of the squall line would have an enhanced tornado threat. This possibility is far from a guarantee, but something we’ll need to watch for closely. It appears the highest potential for tornadoes will be to our northeast in Arkansas (plus adjacent states in the Mid-South).

The strongest portion of the squall line should move into Arkansas and Lousiana by dinner-time. The trailing section of the squall line will impact the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas by the evening hours. Severe weather is less likely this evening as the upper-level dynamics will be farther displaced. Localized strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall look to be the two primary threats by tonight in Southeast Texas and in the piney woods of East Texas.

These thoughts are from data early this morning. Remember that things can change in a hurry, so please check back for updates later. Jenny should have a blog out by 10 AM. You can track storms using our free interactive weather radar here. It really is a great resource and we hope it continues to be useful.