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11:30 PM Winter Storm Nowcast & Short-Term Forecast Update

The freezing line extends from near Brady to Hillsboro to Athens to Tyler to Atlanta. Locations north of that line generally below freezing. Temperatures will continue to fall into the middle and upper 20s in the next three hours. The freezing line itself will continue to move south overnight. Precipitation will change over to sleet and eventually snow north of that freezing line. Light rain with occasional sleet will be possible south of the freezing line.

Light to locally moderate snow is falling in Northeast Texas. Mount Pleasant to Texarkana is reporting snow with accumulations present. Road conditions are going downhill with snow now accumulating on surface roadways. Snow will continue for another 2-3 hours (at least) with additional accumulations expected. Snow totals for the event are expected to be in the one to three-inch range across Northeast Texas and East Texas (generally along/north of Interstate 20 in East Texas). Localized accumulations over four inches are possible, especially closer to Texarkana into Southwest Arkansas.

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Patchy light sleet/snow is falling in North Texas, including the D/FW Metroplex. Heavier bursts of sleet and snow earlier this evening melted on contact with most surface objects. That melting allowed bridges, overpasses, and roadways to become wet. Now that temperatures are falling into the upper 20s we expect some bridges and overpasses to ice up. Indeed we’ve received a few reports of slick bridges over the last hour in northern Dallas County. Additional light activity is building in from the west/southwest, and this activity will bring additional light snow through 2 AM. Light accumulations are possible and could cause slick conditions to develop.

Simulated radar through early Tuesday afternoon from the HRRR model. Times on top-right part of graphic are in Eastern, so subtract an hour.

As the freezing line continues to move south we’ll see a switchover to light sleet/light snow in Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. Once temperatures fall into the 20s we’ll really need to keep an eye on bridges and overpasses. The switch-over/freezing line arrival is expected to arrive in Austin around 4-5AM, San Antonio 6-7AM, College Station around 3 AM, and Houston around 8-9AM. Warm soil temperatures should keep most surface roads wet for a while, but the nasty north wind will help to quickly cool elevated surfaces. We could see bridges and overpasses go downhill in a hurry once temperatures fall to 29-30 degrees. Any heavier bursts of sleet and/or snow could result in a quick accumulation on surface roadways, and cause road conditions to go downhill in a hurry.

Drier air filtering in from the north will cause precipitation to end from north to south. Any travel issues that develop tonight and on Tuesday may not improve until the late-morning hours on Wednesday, as temperatures finally rise above freezing. Thanks to those who are passing along reports from their location. Those reports are very useful and we’re passing them along to the National Weather Service.

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David Reimer

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