• At 4:30 PM a surface dryline extends from near Vernon to Snyder to Big Spring to Sanderson. Winds behind this dryline are out of the west across the Permian Basin and out of the north/northwest in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. Relative humidity values behind the dryline are below 25 percent. The threat for fast-moving grass fires will continue to be elevated into the evening hours.
  • The actual cool front is now moving through the Texas Panhandle into West Texas and Northwest Texas. This front will continue to move south over the coming hours, and actually accelerate its southward movement as we get into the evening. Temperatures behind the front are in the 40s with 30s in eastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas.
  • Surface temperatures outside of the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Borderland, and higher elevations of the Trans-Pecos are in the middle 70s to middle 80s. The 4 PM observation at Laredo was 86 degrees with 88 degrees in McAllen and Falfurrias.

Precipitation Chances This Evening

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) has been pretty consistent in firing up isolated to scattered thunderstorms in portions of North Texas and Northeast Texas around 6 to 8 PM. This would occur as the leading edge of the northerly wind shift enters the region. The fast-moving nature of the wind shift line should prevent thunderstorms from maintaining their organization for a long period of time. As the storms get undercut by the wind shift line, they lose their inflow of unstable air. With that said I can’t rule out a rogue strong storm or two this evening from the D/FW Metroplex northeast to Paris and Clarksville. Small hail and gusty winds of 40 to 50 MPH would be the primary threat. By about 10-11PM I expect we’ll have a thin line of showers – perhaps a thunderstorm – associated with the wind-shift line as it moves south into Central Texas and East Texas. Not everyone will see rain and overall rainfall amounts should be light.

Cold Front Timing for Tonight and Tuesday Morning

I’ve been using the term wind-shift versus cool front in the previous paragraph because the cooler air is lagging several hours behind the front. That’ll change overnight and by morning we’ll see a sharp demarcation in temperatures associated with the cool front. Those south of the front will have a humid and warm night with lows in the 60s and 70s. By sunrise, those north of the front will have temperatures in the 50s or below. High temperatures on Tuesday will remain in the 40s and 50s north of the cool front. Temperatures on Tuesday will make it into the 70s and 80s south of the front, but those high temperatures should occur during the morning or early afternoon hours. Once the front arrives at a given location in South Texas, Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, or Rio Grande Valley tomorrow temperatures will fall from the 70s and 80s down into the 50s.

Tuesday into Wednesday

Low temperatures by Wednesday morning will generally be in the 20s, 30s, and 40s across Texas. The immediate coastline will experience lows right around 50 degrees, but even that is better than the muggy airmass in place today. Our next storm system will arrive on Wednesday with a chance of precipitation, including frozen precipitation in parts of the Trans-Pecos, Permian Basin, and Edwards Plateau. Please see my morning blog discussion for more details on that.