Depending on how you define “perfection”…we have a pretty darn perfect Thanksgiving week forecast ahead for just about everyone with quiet weather expected.  Temps this week will range just a bit above normal overall, but nothing too extreme. Folks up in the northern half of the state will be able to leave their windows open and enjoy the fresh breeze. Folks across the southern half of the state will probably be needing the AC on from time to time, but as a native Houstonian…that was always pretty typical for us.  Travelers will enjoy the near zero chances for rain and plenty of sunshine…and parents will appreciate being able to kick the kids outdoors to play while they are busy preparing the Thanksgiving feast.  Between now and Thursday, we’ll see another cold front arrive on Tuesday. This won’t bring much of a temperature difference, but it will help to reinforce the dry air currently in place and keep most of the moisture shoved out into the Gulf.  After Thanksgiving day, we’ll see things warm up again…back into the 70s and perhaps some low 80s out across the western half of the state before another cold front arrives over the weekend.  Overall…a really good week for holiday plans!

The downside of not having chances for rain in the forecast is the continued increase in abnormally dry and drought conditions across the state.  If you saw David’s blog last Thursday with the latest Texas Drought Monitor report, you saw that drought conditions have returned to many parts of the state.  Currently just under 1/2 of the state is at least in the “Abnormally Dry” category, whereas 3 months ago, only about 10% of the state was in any level of drought.  Unfortunately, this trend is likely to continue throughout the Winter months with La Nina conditions present now and expected to continue at least into early Spring.  The graphics below depict the latest 6-10 day precipitation and temperature outlooks from the Weather Prediction Center.