The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a level 3 risk of severe weather (3 out of 5) late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening in Texoma and for locations roughly along/north of Highway 380 in North Texas. The standard level 2 risk runs south into the Big Country, Central Texas, extending into Northeast Texas. Still expecting a rather rowdy squall line with the threat of damaging straight-line winds. A few hail reports are certainly possible. The tornado risk continues to look very low.
Keep in mind that fall is our second severe weather season in the southern United States. I’d remind readers not to be surprised about severe storms in the fall, but considering we had violent tornadoes the day after Christmas not that long ago, I doubt you need the reminder. For those new to Texas or worried about storms in general, don’t be scared – be prepared.
This does not look like a tornado setup, but one that could produce damaging winds as a nearly solid line of storms accompanies the cold front. The ‘enhanced’ level 3 risk was issued where confidence is higher in seeing a higher frequency of those damaging wind events. We’ll have a detailed blog later today to look at the threat as a whole along with the first high-resolution data for Saturday.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2017 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OK AND PARTS OF NORTH TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TX TO EASTERN KS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHWEST IA... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.