The area of thunderstorms located over the northwestern Carribean Sea has become more organized overnight. This morning high-resolution satellite data confirmed a defined low had formed, thus meeting the criteria for a tropical cyclone. Advisories on Tropical Depression #16 were initiated by the National Hurricane Center at 10 AM CT. Like our blog discussion, last night stated future ‘Nate’ will continue to move north/northwestward over the next few days before entering the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A high pressure in the western Atlantic will eventually pull the system north and northeast, but it must be stressed the timing and location of that turn remain uncertain. Regardless of the eventual track of ‘Nate’, conditions will favor intensification with a relatively high possibility of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Let me state now that the probability of direct impacts on Texas from ‘Nate’ is very low. Those from Lousiana east to the gulf-facing Florida need to closely watch for new forecasts. This system has the potential of being a quickly intensifying hurricane once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. 

Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

…NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM SSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the
Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the
border with Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track,
the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early
Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today
or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across
portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches
possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are
expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible.
Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.