After a couple days of drying out, we’re heading back into another period of wet weather. A longwave trough over the western United States will send ripples of energy (lift) over parts of Texas in the coming few days. This longwave trough is also helping to advect lots of moisture northward – as shown in the graphic above. Precipitable Water values around two deviations above average for early October will allow for efficient rainfall rates. Rain chances will increase tonight along the coast in Southeast Texas and the Middle Texas Coast before we see more widespread rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday across the state.
The highest chance of showers and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday will be along and east of Highway 281. I expect there will be periods of rain impacting most of our larger metropolitan areas tomorrow including D/FW, AUS, SAT, HOU, CRP, BRO, and LRD. This does not mean it will rain for the entire day, although I would have indoor backup plans ready to go. Rain chances will increase Tuesday Night further west and north across Texas and into Oklahoma and Kansas with scattered showers expected. A few storms can’t be ruled out, but severe weather is unlikely.
Instead of describing where the highest rain chances look to be on Wednesday I’ll simply describe who has the highest chance of not getting rained on. The lowest rain chances look to be across East Texas where isolated showers are expected. Depending on trends we may be able to keep rain chances in the ‘isolated’ category across the eastern half of North Texas as well. Otherwise scattered showers are expected in the Borderland, Trans-Pecos, Permian Basin, Big Country, Edwards Plateau, Concho Valley, into South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and Middle Texas Coast. Numerous showers and a few storms are probable across West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but locally heavy rain is possible. Scattered showers are possible Wednesday Night across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Borderland, into the Edwards Plateau, Southwest Texas, and South Texas. It looks like most of North Texas, Central Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas should be mostly dry by this point.
The highest rainfall amounts through Friday look to be across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, east through Texoma. The second area of comparatively higher rain totals looks to be across South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, Middle Texas Coast, and coastal regions of Southeast Texas. Both regions have the potential of seeing widespread one to two inches of rain with locally higher amounts. Unless rain totals increase in subsequent forecasts the threat of widespread flooding is low, but spotty nuisance flooding (low-lying roads, bar-ditches, etc) will be possible. We should start drying out Thursday and Friday with above-average temperatures expected.