Rapid scan satellite imagery from GOES 16 indicates we now have a well-defined closed circulation in the northwestern Carribean. As such advisories have been initiated on Tropical Storm Franklin. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 40 MPH – hence why we’ve gone straight to a tropical storm. Franklin is moving northwest at 13 MPH and will make landfall on the Yucatan Pensenyla tomorrow. Once it moves across the Yucatan it’ll enter the very warm Bay of Campeche for about a day. It is during that time Franklin may rapidly intensify into a hurricane. Luckily for us, Franklin is expected to make landfall several hundred miles south of Brownsville into mainland Mexico early Thursday. Here is the advisory information from the National Hurricane Center…
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017
…TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 100 MI…155 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI…610 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Gulf coast of Mexico from south of Campeche to Sabancuy.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center will pass north of Honduras tonight
and early Monday, then approach the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula on Monday afternoon. The system is forecast to move
across the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches the eastern coast
of the Yucatan peninsula.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, mainly to the northeast. NOAA buoy 42057 in the
northwest Caribbean Sea has recently reported peak sustained winds
of 40 mph with a gust to 49 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area by Monday afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in portions of the watch area in Belize by Monday
afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch
area in Mexico on Tuesday.