Good evening everyone! Please know that we continue to have rescues made today on the Upper Texas Coast while parts of the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas start to switch into the first stages of recovery. It will take many months to likely several years. Folks will have to adapt to the ‘new normal’. With that said we’ll start looking ahead for future weather issues and let the news agencies take care of the current situation. Next week’s potential Gulf of Mexico storm has a ‘low’ probability of becoming a tropical depression/storm – and most data keeps it away from Texas.

Some of you may have heard about a new hurricane called Irma today. Irma had a hissy fit earlier today and rapidly intensified from a 65 MPH tropical storm to a 115 MPH category 3 major hurricane in 12 hours. Irma will likely be a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Atlantic over the next several days. It is currently located over 4,000 miles east of Brownsville or about 1,725 east of the Leeward Islands. The center is located near 17.8N/35.6W for those who like to plot positions on a map.

Understand that this is the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The last several years have been fairly quiet, and after Harvey everyone’s nerves are frayed. You hear the word ‘hurricane’ and alarms start going off. That has been the case today as I’ve received many questions about Irma and if it could pose a threat to Texas. The answer to that is probably not, but we simply don’t know. Irma’s eventual track could go from the Florida Straights into the Gulf of Mexico, it could move toward Florida and eventually turn northeast and ride the eastern US coastline, or it could simply recurve well east of the United States and be a ‘fish storm’.

Weather models will change from ‘run to run’. Some folks may elect to share weather model graphics showing a ‘worst case scenario’, but please understand no one can predict where this will be in ten days. If by the luck of the draw this does become a Gulf of Mexico threat it would not be approaching the Gulf for another 10-14 days. Analogs, or past storms in the position of Irma, have tended to either be a ‘fish’ storm that recurves east of the United States – or is an issue for the Atlantic side of the United States. We’ll never rule anything out this far out, but the probabilities dictate Irma probably won’t be a threat to Texas – but one should always be prepared for tropical mischief in the hurricane season. We’ll keep you updated.

Irma’s eventual track could go from the Florida Straights into the Gulf of Mexico, it could move toward Florida and eventually turn northeast and ride the eastern US coastline, or it could simply recurve well east of the United States and be a ‘fish storm’. Weather models will change from ‘run to run’. Some folks may elect to share weather model graphics showing a ‘worst case scenario’, but please understand no one can predict where this will be in ten days.

If by the luck of the draw this does become a Gulf of Mexico threat it would not be approaching the Gulf for another 10-14 days. Analogs, or past storms in the position of Irma, have tended to either be a ‘fish’ storm that recurves east of the United States – or is an issue for the Atlantic side of the United States. We’ll never rule anything out this far out, but the probabilities dictate Irma probably won’t be a threat to Texas – but one should always be prepared for tropical mischief in the hurricane season. We’ll keep you updated. Don’t be scared, be prepared!