The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the eastern Texas Panhandle and West-Central Texas to an ‘enhanced’ level 3 risk of severe weather. This risk area was added due to increased confidence in several severe storms capable of producing destructive hail from about 3 PM to 10 PM today. The tornado risk is very low to downright non-zero today thanks to very high cloud bases and lackluster low-level wind shear. Temperatures will approach 100 degrees across the risk area by the mid-afternoon hours. Those hot temperatures combined with dewpoint temperatures in the middle 60s to upper 60s will create a very unstable airmass. Overall wind shear values will be modest, but sufficient to support organized convective modes. I do expect to have widely scattered slow-moving supercells underway by the late afternoon hours. These storms will probably tend to move east/southeast at only 10 to 25 MPH. Activity should remain much more isolated south of Interstate 20 as the capping inversion will be stronger. Not everyone will see storms today in the risk zone. In fact, coverage may remain below 30-40 percent. However, the strongest storms will be big-time hailers. Like the past two days, we’ll see storms start weakening not long after sunset as the capping inversion strengthens and ‘squashes’ the storms. We should be mostly done with the severe weather threat by 10 PM, but some weaker storms may continue on into the late evening. For more forecast information head on over to Jenny’s detailed blog from earlier this morning.
About The Author
A weather weenie since early childhood, David began storm chasing in his junior year of high school in 2008. He’s been hooked ever since! His vision helped Texas Storm Chasers become the social media powerhouse and information hub TSC followers have come to expect during high-impact events. While he moved to Oklahoma in 2013 with his better half [Paige] he remains passionate about Texas weather and continues storm chasing to this day across the United States.