The National Hurricane Center has issued their 10 AM Update on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. The Hurricane Hunters are en route to the system and we should have a better idea of the system’s organization shortly. The track forecast continues to be shifted gradually west, although the actual landfall point and centerline don’t matter as much with a weak tropical system. By far very heavy rainfall and flooding will be our primary concern near and well east of the track. Based on the westward shift in the track it now appears this heavy rain threat will encompass Southeast Texas and portions of East Texas. Isolated tornadoes are also possible late tonight and on Wednesday in far Southeast Texas. PTC #3/Cindy should be moving onshore Wednesday evening to early Thursday morning. It’ll continue to move northwest with an eventual north turn over East Texas. How long that northwestward movement continues will determine how far ‘into’ East Texas the system makes it. Rough surf will continue along all the Gulf Coast for the next several days – and dangerous rip currents are expected. We’ll have a new blog in about an hour once local National Weather Service offices issue their respective local impact statements.

A Tropical Storm Warning runs from High Island east into southern Lousiana. This does include High Island, Sabine Pass, Nederland, Beaumont, and Orange. A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. 

A Tropical Storm Watch now runs along and east of San Luis Pass to High Island. This includes Jamaica Beach, Galveston Island, Port Bolivar, Goat Island, the Bolivar Peninsula, to the west of High Island. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours. 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST…
…HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI…430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI…565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to High
Island, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of High Island to San
Luis Pass, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday night. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast early Thursday. On the forecast track,
the disturbance is expected to be near the southwest Louisiana coast
late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland over western
Louisiana and eastern Texas on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.

Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 999 mb
(29.50 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today and spread westward
within the warning area through Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level
is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm
Warning area.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.