The coverage of Heat Advisories has been expanded for today to include much of central and south Texas…as well as western Texas and portions of north central Texas. Head Index values between 105 and 115 are expected across a large portion of the state ahead of a highly-anticipated cold front which is arriving as we are typing this blog update. Its’s not a fast moving front, but it should make it down into central or south central Texas by tomorrow before it stalls out. It will bring some relief from this heat and it will give us chances for storms today and additional rainfall on Saturday.
Little change was made overnight to the forecast highs for today. We’re still looking at 99 as the official high for the Dallas area with a heat index reading of 108 by this afternoon, 100 for Austin and San Antonio with heat index readings of 106 to 108, 108 for El Paso, 106 out in the Midland/Odessa area and 109 out near Laredo where the heat index could top 115 later on. Areas across the panhandle that saw the front pass through overnight will be looking at highs only in the low to mid 80s, which will be quite a relief for those folks.
Storm chances this afternoon will be most likely along and ahead of the frontal boundary which looks to be arriving just a tad slower than what the forecast models were showing yesterday. As such, the Marginal Risk (Level 1) of severe weather for today has shifted north just a bit and will reside mainly north of the I-20 corridor across western north Texas, the rolling plains south of the panhandle and northern Permian Basin region. Ample instability and decent moisture will be in place this afternoon ahead of the front…and the extreme heat across the region will help to break the cap later this afternoon with initially scattered storm development which will become more widespread as we get into the evening hours. Additional rainfall is expected to develop across north central Texas overnight into early Saturday morning. Quarter size hail and damaging winds are expected to be the main threats.
Simulated radar animation from about 3pm this afternoon through noon on Saturday.