This is a short-term forecast update for far Southeast Texas. A band of heavy rainfall has pivoted onshore near Sabine Pass extending north/northwestward toward Beaumont. Short-term high-resolution weather models are in fairly good agreement that this corridor of heavy rain will be nearly stationary or ‘train’ over the same areas. Hourly rainfall rates may approach 2.5 to 3 inches an hour in the heaviest rains – and these rains may continue for several hours over the same locations. Recent dry weather means flash flood guidance values are higher, so it’ll take a bit of time for flooding to develop. However, the threat for flash flooding may increase markedly after 10 PM. Up to five inches of rain may fall in far Southeast Texas, especially focused near the Sabine River, through 1 AM. This potential flood event may include Beaumont, Nederland, to Sabine Pass and Orange. These regions should be prepared for a flash flood event tonight – with the potential for significant flooding by Thursday morning.
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0357
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
917 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2017
AREAS AFFECTED…EXT SOUTHEAST TX…SOUTHWEST LA
CONCERNING…HEAVY RAINFALL…FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 220115Z – 220600Z
SUMMARY…NORTH/SOUTH DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR SABINE RIVER CURRENTLY
FORMING AND LIKELY TO REMAIN A FAIRLY STATIONARY FORCING FOCUS
ALLOWING FOR COMPOUNDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIKELY FLASH FLOODING
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
This band of heavy rainfall could continue for several hours into Thursday morning. Gusty winds up to 50 MPH are also expected with the heavier activity in far Southeast Texas as the center of Cindy approaches the coast. It should make landfall later tonight in far Southeast Texas or in far southwest Lousiana. We’ll see moderate to heavy rain spread north across East Texas by Thursday morning as Cindy moves inland. Remember, there will be a sharp cutoff in the rain west of Cindy’s track. We’ll go from almost dry to potential flooding over a 20-mile distance. The good news is most of Cindy’s attitude should be out of Texas by Thursday night.