A disorganized low pressure is located near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, east of Cancun. This disorganized low is going to be a headache in meteorologists side for the next several days. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone as it moves into the southern to the central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. After that juncture is when the forecast becomes very murky. Until we can actually get a defined, pinpoint low pressure to develop the uncertainty will remain extremely high. I will say I don’t believe we’re going to be dealing with a major hurricane, but this system could become a named tropical storm. One thing models do agree on is this system will produce prolific rainfall wherever it ends up making landfall by mid-week. Dangerous rip currents are expected all along the Gulf Coast this week. Those who have interests along the Gulf Coast – from Texas to Florida – should monitor the progress of this system closely in the coming days. Expect substantial changes to the forecast as confidence in one particular solution becomes more clear. Be sure to visit our hurricane resource center which contains several resources including evacuation maps and other important information.

Finally, a final word of caution. Weather models, including ‘spaghetti models’, will not have a good handle on this system until we get a defined low-level circulation. Until that happens models will just be spitting out guesses every other run. Don’t let yourself get fooled by any ‘scary looking’ or precise weather graphics you might see posted on social media.

The above graphic contains a spelling error. “Cylcone” should be Cyclone. #ThanksSpellCheck

Here is the 2 PM ET outlook from the National Hurricane Center.Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad low-pressure

“Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad low-pressure
area is centered near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. This system is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several hundred miles
to the east and northeast of the center. However, the low lacks a
well-defined center of circulation, and the Hurricane Hunter mission
scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled. Gradual development
is expected while the low moves slowly north-northwestward across
the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, where a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over portions of Central America, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if
necessary. For more information on this system, please see the
High Seas Forecast issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.”