Severe weather threats return to portions of southeast and far eastern Texas tomorrow. Hail and damaging winds look to be the greatest threats; however, there will be the potential for a few tornados given the amount of moisture and instability that will be present by late morning across much of southeast Texas. Two rounds of storms will be likely…one early in the day with another round later in the afternoon as a strong cold front arrives. Wind profiles with the early to late morning round of storms looks to bear the greatest potential for any possible tornado development. Are we talking about a widespread threat of tornados…no. But all it takes is one or two to cause issues. The second round of storms will arrive later in the afternoon along the leading edge of a strong cold front that will arrive across the northern half of the state by mid-day. The amount of time the atmosphere has to destabilize again after the first round of morning storms moves off to the east will have an impact on the severity of the round expected with the cold front later in the afternoon. Some forecast models are showing only a modest recovery, while others are showing a healthy rebound of instability levels by mid afternoon. Either way, the primary threat with the second round of storms during the late afternoon and evening is expected to be damaging straight-line winds with a much lower threat for tornadoes. One thing which cannot be factored in until it actually occurs would be if the early day storms pushes an outflow boundary across southeast Texas ahead of the front. While this is not expected to happen, it could produce a localized and conditional threat for a few tornadic storms to develop along or just ahead of the front as it arrives tomorrow afternoon. Is this a major threat…no. But it’s one that we will be carefully watching tomorrow afternoon once we see what impact the morning’s storms will have on the environment later tomorrow afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center has a small portion of East and SoutheastTexas under an Enhanced Risk (Level 3) for tomorrow which includes Center, Nacogdoches, Lufkin, Corrigan, Woodville, Jasper, San Augustine and Hemphill. There is also a Slight Risk (Level 2) in place across a much larger footprint across southeast Texas which includes Longview, Fairfield, Giddings, LaGrange, Bryan/College Station, El Campo, Freeport, Houston, Galveston and over into Beaumont. Residents in and around these areas will need to keep an eye local weather conditions beginning early tomorrow morning. Monitor local media outlets and have a way to receive weather warnings should any be issued for your location. And as a reminder, if a Tornado Warning is issued for your location, do not wait for confirmation of the tornado before seeking shelter. We’ll have another update out tomorrow morning with the latest Storm Prediction Center graphics and any updates to the forecast as additional data rolls in overnight. And to leave you with something to look forward to…our weather turns nice for the remainder of the week and into the weekend with high pressure in place for the next 5 days or so. A break from spring storms will certainly be enjoyable!