An upper level low currently arriving on the west coast will slowly make its way east this week bringing daily chances for storms this week. Thankfully, the rounds of storms expected tomorrow, Tuesday and Wednesday will not be impacting areas still trying to recover from the tornadoes back on April 29th. But for Thursday, there could be storms impacting areas east and northeast of the DFW area. More on that further down in the blog. On Monday, we’ll see the best chances for isolated strong to severe storm development across the western Texas panhandle near the New Mexico border, and also across the northern Trans Pecos region of far western Texas. Storm coverage will not be great, and the threat of severe weather is low, but residents in the western panhandle and far western Texas will need to keep an eye on things especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Hail and high winds are expected to be the main threats with any of the stronger cells that pop up tomorrow afternoon and evening.
For Tuesday, chances for late evening and overnight storms appears best across the central and western portions of the Texas panhandle down into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions. Storm coverage is expected to remain on the isolated to scattered side of the spectrum, so not everyone will have impacts. Any storms that are able to become strong and maintain themselves overnight will carry the threat of frequent lightning, large hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat is expected to be low, but is non-zero, so definitely have a way to receive weather warnings during the nighttime hours.
Wednesday looks to have the highest potential for severe weather, but we may see that become dependent on rain coverage early Wednesday morning and how quickly the atmosphere can recover during the afternoon hours before stronger lift from the upper level low arrives. At this time, it appears the rain and showers early on Wednesday will not be widespread enough to muck out the atmosphere during the afternoon hours. Increasing energy from the upper level low will be overspreading the western half of the state at that time and a dryline will sharpen up across the eastern Texas panhandle and western north Texas. Instability and wind shear will be sufficient for isolated to scattered supercell development which will carry the threat of large hail, damaging winds and a tornado threat as well. Much like Tuesday, these storms are expected to carry on through the late evening and into the early overnight hours.
For Thursday, the core of the upper level low is expected to be moving east across southern Kansas. Lift from the low will continue to spread east across north Texas and southern Oklahoma with the dryline is expected to push east towards the I-35 corridor by late afternoon. Best chances for severe weather will be east of the dryline across northeast Texas where the best moisture and instability will be located by Thursday afternoon. This is still many days out, so we are expecting to see some adjustment to the current threat zone outlined for Thursday, along with better clarity on what types of severe weather we can expect. We cannot say at this time if tornados will be as great of a threat like they were back on April 29th…but we will be carefully monitoring this threat and will keep you up to date as the week progresses. Once the axis of the upper level low moves east, we’ll see a cold front drop down late Thursday night into Friday which will do a pretty good job of scouring our moisture back down towards the gulf for the weekend ahead. This should leave us mostly rain and storm free for Saturday, then we may see chances return again for the western half of the state by Sunday. That’s way out in crystal ball territory, but that’s the pattern the current mid to long-range models are showing at this time.