The threat for severe weather across portions of north central Texas is increasing this evening.  A Tornado WATCH remains in effect until 10pm for a large portion of North Central Texas as outlined in the graphic below.  While storm coverage will not be widespread this evening, the storms will pack a punch with the potential for extremely large hail up to the size of softballs and the threat of a few tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong.  We’re currently monitoring cells which have fired up along the dryline east and southeast of Abilene.  The southern-most cell within the group, to the north of Coleman, is currently Tornado Warned and is heading northeast towards Cross Plains and Rising Star at just under 20mph.  This batch of storms will continue to move northeast this evening and will be approaching areas west of the DFW metroplex within the next 2 hours. Instability levels across north central Texas are quite high at the moment, and with plenty of moisture continuing to stream northward, and as the low level jet (winds at approx 5,000 ft above the surface) begin to ramp up close to dusk, this will continue to feed storm development across the area this evening.  As lift from the upper level system driving these storms moves northeast this evening, it will carry the threat for storms further into the metroplex; however, coverage at this time remains a bit uncertain.  At this time it appears the best chances for storms within the immediate metroplex will be from the I-20 corridor and to the north.  This should be at about the time the Tornado Watch across the area has ended, and the storms are expected to weaken as we head into the overnight hours.

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For areas across western north Texas around Wichita Falls, storms are continuing to develop along the dryline and continue to move northeast into south central and southwestern Oklahoma.  The Tornado WATCH currently in effect across western north Texas will remain in effect until 8pm, but may be extended depending on how storms are behaving at that time.  Additional storm development along the dryline is expected through the rest of this evening and these storms will carry the threat for tornadoes…some strong… very large hail and torrential rain as the storms train repeatedly across the same area.  As always, have a way to receive weather warnings if you’re out and about this evening and monitor local news media for the latest!

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