A busy weather day is setting up across parts of the state. Not everyone will see thunderstorms – nor will those who get rained on deal with severe weather or flooding. I believe we will see reports of large hail, damaging winds, and flooding over the next eighteen hours. With that said, let’s dive into the details by starting out with the latest severe weather outlook.
Severe Weather Outlook: The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a large level 2 ‘standard’ risk zone for this afternoon and evening. This level 2 risk zone includes the Hill Country, Central Texas, the southeastern half of North Texas, and Northeast Texas. The risk runs along and south of a line from Bells to Arlington to Hico to Eden to Sonora. On the southern end of the spectrum, this risk runs along and north of a Pearsall to Pleasanton to Schulenburg to Huntsville to Nacogdoches to Shreveport. A level 1 risk includes the Concho Valley, South Texas, Southeast Texas, and parts of East Texas. The level 2 risk zone is where there is roughly a one in five chance of experiencing severe weather within twenty five miles of your location. The level 1 risk zone has a five percent chance of severe weather within twenty five miles of your location. I would not be surprised to see the level 2 risk expanded further southeast toward Houston in later updates.
Severe Threats: The strongest storms may produce large hail up to the size of golfballs and damaging straight-line winds up to 70 MPH. We may see a more widespread wind threat evolves by this evening if a squall line organises and pushes into the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas. Heavy rain and flash flooding become more likely this evening and tonight in Central Texas, South-Central Texas, east into the Brazos Valley. Today’s setup does not favor a tornado threat, but we’ll never say it is zero.
Flood Risk: There is a concern that thunderstorms may start to ‘train’ or move over the same areas tonight in Central Texas. Should this occur there will be the potential of several inches of rain in a short period of time. We won’t see excessive rainfall over a widespread area, but localized issues are expected. Five to seven inches of rain may locally fall tonight, and those kind of totals in a few hours will cause flooding. While we will be focusing on severe weather potential this afternoon, it is likely that flooding will become the primary hazard by tonight.
Timing: Thunderstorms will likely be initate shortly after lunch and be underway by 1 to 2 PM in the eastern Concho Valley into North Texas. These initial storms will probably be cellular or in small clusters. Some of these storms will probably be severe with a risk of large hail and localized damaging wind gusts. By 5 PM storms will be more widespread in the Hill Country, southern and eastern North Texas, up into Northeast Texas. By mid-evening these storms may organize into a squall line from Central Texas east into the Brazos Valley and East Texas. Some of these storms may begin to train/stall out in portions of Central Texas and Hill Country, while the line continues to move southeast in Southeast Texas. Any training storms will have the risk of causing flash flooding.