The Storm Prediction Center has placed the southeastern Texas Panhandle and portions of Northwest Texas in a level 2 risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening. A level 1 risk includes Texoma, the Big Country, Concho Valley, and a majority of West Texas. A level 2 risk is the ‘standard’ risk level that means we have a 15 percent chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location. Those in the level 1 risk has about a 5 percent chance of severe weather occuring within 5 miles of your location. Today’s setup doesn’t favor high-end severe weather nor are we expecting widespread severe storms. What we could have happen is a few supercells in the southeastern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Those storms could be the ones that produce our Easter egg size hail and a brief tornado. Storms could grow upscale into a cluster or squall line this evening with a threat of localized damaging winds and hail.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon across a majority of the state. While that means most folks won’t get rained on today, keep an eye to the sky in case a quick hitting shower tries to intrude on your plans. The relative highest chance for storms by the late afternoon will be in the southeastern Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and further east in Texoma. The dryline will be the player for the Panhandle and West Texas regions. The chance for storms in Texoma will be due to an outflow boundary left over from storms that occurred further north on Saturday. Each one of these players could help storms develop. Any storm that does go could be strong in addition to a threat for locally heavy rainfall. Remember, every thunderstorm produces lightning. If you hear thunder please move indoors.
The forecast for tonight is low-confidence. An upper level storm system will be arriving from Mexico. Weather data from Mexico (in terms of weather balloons, etc) is quite sparse. That’s why we tend to get a few surprises because we don’t have a real-time picture on the strength of the upper level storm system. Rain chances will increase tonight across Southwest Texas into portions of the Concho Valley. Scattered rain chances (30%-40%) are also expected in the Big Country, Northwest Texas, North Texas, Central Texas, and the Hill Country. Some storms may be strong with hail and localized damaging wind gusts. Some locally heavy rain is also a possibility.
Scattered showers and storms will continue on Monday across the eastern two-thirds of Texas. Some storms may be strong with small hail and gusty winds, but severe weather does not look likely at this time. Some folks may pick up 0.75 to 1″ of rain tonight through Monday. Rain chances will decrease by Monday Night with isolated activity remaining a possibility. I know this blog wasn’t too specific on locations/timing for rain. That is due to weak upper level steering currents and the system coming in from data-sparse Mexico. The highest rain chances later tonight and on Monday will depend on where we see our first storm developments today.