We now have an enhanced risk of severe weather across much of North and Northeast Texas. This includes all of the D/FW Metroplex east to Tyler, northeast to Texarkana. A level 2 risk (the standard risk level) runs east of a WIchita Falls To Graham to Stephenville line all the way to Shreveport. These risk zones simply depict the likelihood of experiencing severe weather near your location. Those in the level 3 risk have a higher severe weather chance than those in the level 2 risk. That said, confidence is increasing that we are going to have severe storms impacting the D/FW Metroplex between 7PM and 10PM this evening. The strongest of those storms may be producing hail larger than the size of a baseball. Damaging wind gusts of 55-70 MPH are also possible. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but the destructive hail threat is the primary concern this evening. The first storms may develop as soon as 4 PM along the Red River or in southern Oklahoma. Those storms would move east/southeast with additional storms developing toward Bowie and Jacksboro. All of that activity will move east/southeast this afternoon and evening. I’ll leave you with a animation of what one model is depicting for activity and timing tonight. Keep in mind this is model data and not meant to be taken literally. Don’t expect a storm right where it shows at the time it shows. Just know that we could be dealing with very large hail problems in North and Northeast Texas by the early evening hours.
Thunderstorms will weaken by late evening across southern sections of North Texas as they get into a more capped enviornment. Expect much cooler temperatures behind the storms as a cold front blasts south tonight and on Saturday. We’ll enjoy some brisk conditions this weekend. Next week has the potential to feature several days of active thunderstorms as a very dynamic pattern sets up aloft. We’re entering the peak of our severe weather season and it looks like Mother Nature intends on showing us that.