At the time of this writing we’re down to one tornado warning, and that is for the area near Mineola. Over the last hour we’ve seen thunderstorms shifting from a semi-discrete supercellular mode toward a linear mode. That is good news since it will help reduce the tornado threat. The threat of tornadoes certainly isn’t zero, but it will be lower compared to earlier when storms were by themselves. Any storms that try and push out ahead of the squall line will have an enhanced tornado risk The highest threat of severe weather over the coming hours will be in East Texas where the cap is weakest. The leading edge of the squall line extends from near Mount Pleasant to Mineola to Athens. Activity back west in D/FW to Sherman is behind the cold front. It may produce small hail, but the severe weather threat is low. From there and points south the cap is still hampering thunderstorm development. There is a thin line of showers and storms, but they’re not severe. That line is from Buffalo to Hearne to Bastrop to the east side of San Antonio. We’ll be watching for signs of intensification as the overall enviornment is supportive of damaging wind gusts and some hail. Activity back west in D/FW to Sherman is behind the cold front. It may produce small hail, but the severe weather threat is low.
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather model seems to have a good picture on whats going on. It continues to slowly push the squall line east over the coming hours. Not all portions of the squall line will be severe, but I think we will see bouts of damaging winds, hail, and even brief tornadoes through midnight. The best chance of those impacts will be in East Texas. We’ll have to see if the squall line is able to intensify further south into the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas. The cap might just be too strong with southward extent. Regardless, if storms do impact Houston tonight, it would likely be around 12-2AM. The squall line should be out of Texas and off to our east by 4 AM Sunday. If it actually can organize a cool pool, it might exit more quickly than that. Either way, we’ll keep tabs on it.
You can keep track of ongoing storms with our free interactive weather radar here.