The Storm Prediction Center maintains a category four risk of severe weather for Texoma and portions of North Texas. Bowie, Decatur, Denton, Gainesville, Sherman, and Bonham are in this category four zone. A category three risk includes Henrietta to just east of Jacksboro, and runs east along and north of a line from Keller to Plano to Greenville to New Boston. A category two risk includes the remainder of North Texas, north of a Hillsboro to Ennis to Mineola to Texarkana line. Today’s outlook lines shouldn’t be scrutinized too much, since any storm that develops – regardless of in the cat 4 or cat 2 risks, will produce the same impacts. Only a few storms are expected, but those that form will be severe. Very large hail larger than the size of baseballs, damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and tornadoes will be possible with the strongest storms. Development could occur as soon as 4 PM, and we may have severe storms ongoing through midnight.
The 10 AM run of the HRRR continues to show the highest potential for thunderstorm development generally along and north of US-380 in North Texas this afternoon. Storms that develop will explosively intensify into supercells. These storms will move east/northeast with a threat of all modes of severe weather. There remains uncertainty on how far south the cap will break this evening, but there is a risk of severe weather in northern sections of the D/FW Metroplex this evening. We may see some development occur around 8-9PM across northern D/FW, and those storms would also likely produce severe weather. The cap looks to hold along and south of Interstate 20, but if a storm does fire, it could be just as severe as further north. This is a good day to stay weather aware and keep an eye on the sky. Here are a few links that will help you stay aware today.