A weak cold front has moved south out of the Texas panhandle and will settle in across north Texas overnight just south of the Red River. Temps will cool into the 30s and 40s tonight behind the front, but ahead of the front, it will remain mild and humid with increasing clouds through the early morning hours. Unfortunately, this front won’t make much of a dent in our daytime highs tomorrow which will still be above average across the state, especially across parts of west central and central Texas which will see highs creep a good 10-12 degrees above average. No rain is expected…we will have to wait until Thursday and Friday before we see the chance for rain and thunderstorms to return in the forecast.
As we’ve been talking about for several days now, we’ll see our overall weather pattern change later this week which will bring several chances for rain and storms back into the area Thursday and Friday…and into next week as well. Strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday afternoon across the western panhandle along the dryline which is currently expected to set up along the Texas/New Mexico border. A fairly strong cap across the region will hold off development until late afternoon or early evening, but once they get going, they will have a window of opportunity to become severe with the main threats being hail and damaging wind gusts. The line of storms are expected to merge into a squall line that will move into western parts of north Texas after midnight. As the line moves east early Friday morning, it is currently expected to decrease in intensity bringing just brief heavy rain and lightning threats. As we get into the afternoon hours on Friday, the line of storms will move east of the I-35 corridor and we’ll see an uptick in storm intensity the storms move into areas with better instability. Best chances for severe storm development will be across northeast Texas…east of the DFW metro area; however, with the forecast models still showing some timing differences with regard to the line of storms, plan now for at least some marginal threat for severe weather across all of north central and northeast Texas during the afternoon on Friday…just to be on the safe side. Sunday will bring another chance for active weather…and we’ll have more out on that as we get closer to the weekend!