A line of showers and a few storms is approaching Interstate 35 just before 9 AM. This line is not severe and is ingesting relatively stable parcels of air this morning. The threat of severe weather will not increase until later this morning and this afternoon east of Interstate 35. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a category two risk of severe weather in eastern North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas. They did introduce a small category three risk across far East Texas, generally east of a Texarkana to Nacogdoches to Jasper line. The primary threat with the strongest storms will be damaging straight-line winds as the squall line intensifies in a couple of hours. The category three risk was issued where an increased likelihood of damaging wind gusts could occur. The tornado threat is low, but not zero. Some hail may also occur, but the setup isn’t one where we expect too many severe-hail reports.
The squall line will intensify as it moves east of Interstate 35 by late morning. The enviornment over Northeast Texas and East Texas will have more ‘juice’ than the Interstate 35 corridor this morning. Wind shear values will be strong and certainly supportive of an organized convective mode. Not all segments of the squall line will produce strong wind gusts, but that threat will increase in a couple of hours. Locally heavy rain and brief/minor flooding is also possible, but we need the rain. The southwest/northeast oriented squall line will exit Texas to the east this evening. Damaging wind gusts can be just as dangerous as weak tornadoes, especially in wooded areas and in susceptible structures (mobile homes, trailers, etc). Some of the stronger sections of the squall line may produce damaging winds over 70 MPH by this afternoon. The threat of tornadoes is low, but not zero. If we do have any brief tornadoes this afternoon in the squall line they’ll be within an area of more widespread damaging winds.