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Weekend Soaker for Southeastern Half of Texas

A day without a high in the 80s this year seems to be rare, so let’s rejoice in the fact our warmest temperatures this afternoon should be around 71 to 72 degrees down in the Rio Grande Valley. The Texas Panhandle and western sections of the South Plains, plus higher elevations around Alpine, will top out in the upper 50s to right around 60 degrees this afternoon. The remainder of Texas won’t be too much warmer with highs in the middle 60s. A great day that isn’t too cold or too hot. We will be dealing with low humidity values, so the threat of wildfires will be elevated.

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A relatively chilly evening and Friday morning is likely as we see temperatures drop off quickly after sunset with a dry airmass in place. With 20s in the Panhandle, we should see 30s as far south as the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Hill Country, Central Texas, east into the northern Brazos Valley and East Texas. We might even see a few 30s in the more protected areas of Southeast Texas. 40s and 50s are likely south of Interstate 10 into South-Central Texas, Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, and the Rio Grande Valley.

Temperatures will climb a bit toward the weekend, but we aren’t expecting any sort of heat wave. Part of the reason we won’t see temperatures soar back up is that a storm system will bring increased clouds and rain chances, especially to southern sections of Texas, by Saturday.

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An upper level disturbance over northern Mexico will move into South Texas on Saturday. The result will be widespread showers and a few storms across the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas. Scattered showers are expected in South Texas, the Middle Coast, Coastal Plains, into South-Central Texas, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas. A few lightning strikes are possible, but this will not be a severe weather setup by any stretch of the imagination. Scattered showers will continue into Saturday night with chances spreading north toward Interstate 20/Interstate 30 from Eastland all the way up to Texarkana. The highest rain chances will remain in South Texas and Southeast Texas on Saturday Night and into the daytime Sunday. We’ll see the chance of heavier rains start to wane on Sunday, but spotty showers could continue into Sunday Night.

There is the possibility of two to three inches of rain this weekend in the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas, generally from Corpus Christi south into the RGV. Some localized flooding will be possible, but I’m still not expecting too many flooding issues to develop. Further north and northeast we’ll generally see one-half inch to one and a half inches of rain, south and east of a Laredo to Austin to College Station to Jasper. A low risk of minor flooding may exsist in typical trouble spots, also known as all of Houston. Most of the accumulating rainfall should be moving out during the day Sunday. Another storm system and potential cold front could arrive in the Monday/Tuesday time-frame, but agreement among weather models remains low.

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David Reimer

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