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Major Wildfire Threat in Western Texas Tomorrow + 100°F in South Texas?

Very warm to record high temperatures are forecast over the next two days. High temperatures this afternoon will range form the upper 70s in Northeast Texas and East Texas up into the lower 90s in South Texas and the Permian Basin. The remainder of Texas will be somewhere in-between with 80s. There will be very high fire danger across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas this afternoon. For Thursday, we may very well see a 100 degree temperature reading in South Texas. Laredo is forecast to top out around 99°, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they make it up to 100°F. Upper 80s and lower 90s are expected north through the Concho Valley, Big Country, into Northwest Texas, and western North Texas. 80s are forecast in Southeast Texas, East Texas, and Northeast Texas and further west in the Permian Basin. It’ll be a tad cooler in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and the Borderland with 70s, but as you’ll see below, we’re going to have serious issues tomorrow in those regions.

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A cool front will move south on Friday, helping to bring cooler temperatures to locations along and north of Interstate 10 for Saturday. Highs on Saturday will top out in the 50s in the Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, east through Texoma, and Northeast Texas. The front will stall out just south of Interstate 10, so the Rio Grande will still remain warm with highs in the 80s. The cooler weather will be short-lived as temperatures start to warm back up on Sunday. Next week looks very warm with the potential for several days of significant wildfire danger.

Thursday is shaping up to be a major wildfire day across the western sections of our state. A combination of strong westerly/southwesterly winds, very low humidity values, dry surface fuels, and warm temperatures will combine to create dangerous fire weather conditions tomorrow. Forecast parameters are comparable to some of our past significant wildfire outbreaks in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. That increases confidence that we could be dealing with potentially serious issues tomorrow. Of-course, we need ignition sources for wildfires to begin. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged and I urge extreme caution when using anything that could produce a spark outdoors. Strong westerly/southwesterly winds up to 55 MPH are possible in parts of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas late Thursday morning through the afternoon hours. Those strong winds could cause blowing dust which may reduce visibility in spots. Also, the strong wind gusts may cause a few power lines to come down or spark – possibly becoming an ignition source for fires. Red Flag Warnings are already in effect for Thursday across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and Borderland. I expect Red Flag Warnings for Thursday in Northwest Texas into the Big Country and Concho Valley. Have a fire safety plan ready to go in case you need to evacuate to safety. Compared to tornadoes or flooding, fire danger doesn’t seem to compare. Yet some of our most devastating events have been due to Southern Plains Wildfire Outbreaks.

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David Reimer

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