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Isolated Severe Storms Possible Today & Tuesday; High-End Fire Danger in the West

Meteorological spring may not officially start until Wednesday, but then again, that hasn’t really mattered this winter. It seems fitting then that instead of discussing the chance of cold, we’ll be chatting about the potential for a few severe thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon, and again on Tuesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern half of North Texas, all of Northeast Texas, and East Texas north of a Waco to Nacogdoches line in a marginal risk of severe weather today. This primarily covers the mid-morning hours through the afternoon. As a reminder, a marginal risk is the lowest of five levels with the severe weather risk system. It doesn’t mean the threat of severe weather is low per-say, it indicates that the coverage of any storms should be lower. That’s what we’re expecting today as we may only see one or two storms develop. However, those one or two storms that do develop could be severe with a risk of large, damaging hail and strong winds. The risk of a tornado is very low, but can’t be completely zeroed out.

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A warm front is lifting north across Central Texas this morning. This front may become a focus point for isolated storm development later this morning. Let me be clear – the development of thunderstorms is not guaranteed. This is a conditional risk that we’re sharing, since if we do get a storm to develop, it could be a nasty hailer. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is indicative of this potential across southern sections of North Texas. If we have an isolated storm develop it could become severe with plenty of instablity and wind shear in place. That storm would likely be ‘elevated’, or above the cap. That keeps the tornado threat very low, but certainly allows the storm to be severe with a threat of very large hail. We may end up with one, relatively long-tack storm later this morning and early afternoon.

Further west and in a dry airmass we’ll be looking at another day of very high to critical fire danger. We do have a critical fire weather designation in place across the western Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, Rolling Plains, Permian Basin, and Trans-Pecos Basin. This critical zone is defined due to very low relative humidity values, warm surface temperatures, and winds above a certain threshold. Very high fire weather danger is possible eastward into Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, and western sections of North Texas. These fire weather outlooks analyze the potential for significant wildfire behavior should a fire develop. If folks can be careful, we’ll be able to get by without many issues on high-fire danger days.

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There will be the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as a dryline moves east. A category 2 risk of severe weather has been issued for Northeast Texas, generally east of a Paris to Sulphur Springs to Tyler to Marshall line. A category 1 risk includes the D/FW Metroplex south to Killeen east through B/CS into Louisiana. At this point it looks like we may be dealing with another day of limited thunderstorm coverage, but any storm that develops could be severe. The highest chance for a couple severe storms will be in the category 2 risk zone in Northeast Texas. Very large hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and a low tornado risk are all possible. An enhanced risk, category 3, is in place across Arkansas where a higher tornado threat may develop. Again, at this juncture, it doesn’t look like we’ll be dealing with many storms in Texas today or tomorrow. However, any storms that do fire could be intense.

A more significant fire weather threat is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, West-Central Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos Basin, and the Borderland. Strong westerly winds, low relative humidity values in the 10 to 20 percent range, and surface temperatures well above average all mean a critical fire weather risk is expected to materialize. We could see extremely critical fire weather conditions develop in parts of West Texas, which may necessitate upgrade in later outlooks. That would be similiar to the risk we saw last week when a 8,000 acre wildfire blew up northwest of Amarillo.

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David Reimer

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