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80s/90s on Saturday; Soaking Rain Sunday Night through Tuesday

Temperatures are rebounding upward quite nicely this afternoon across most of the Texas Panhandle, south into Southwest Texas, into Southeast Texas this afternoon with 60s and 70s commonplace. Cooler air is winning out across the eastern Texas Panhandle into Texoma and Northeast Texas where we still have 40s and 50s early this afternoon. There will be no question on the winner by tomorrow as temperatures get back well above average for all of Texas.

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High temperatures on Friday will be above-average across all of Texas with 70s and 80s. We’re going to see downright hot and record-breaking temperatures in the Texas Panhandle, Permian Basin, and Deep South Texas as high temperatures reach the middle to upper 80s. Amarillo is forecast to top out at 84 degrees on Friday. The average high for this time of year is 53 degrees in Amarillo. The eastern two-thirds of Texas, outside of South Texas, will top out in the 70s on Friday. Honestly, outside of the increasing clouds in parts of the state, Friday will be a great spring-like day.

Saturday is going to be down-right hot and likely the hottest day so far this year for several cities. We’re currently expecting upper 80s to lower 90s in Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Permian Basin, South Texas, into Deep South Texas. Lower to middle 80s are expected in North Texas south through Central Texas. Upper 70s to lower 80s can be expected in the Texas Panhandle, the Borderland, the Brazos Valley, into Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. The risk of dangerous wildfires will be very high to critical as record-breaking warmth combines with dormant, winter fuels and low relative humidity values. Expect several new temperature records to be set on Friday and Saturday.

We’ll see a strong cold front slowly push south on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday as an upper level low (and associated surface low) move across Texas. Temperatures by Monday will not get out of the 30s in the Texas Panhandle or West Texas. We’ll still see warm conditions across the southeast half of Texas as the front stalls out.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday Night through Tuesday from west to east across Texas. Specific timing on rain chances for your location will depend on the speed of our upper level storm system and the eventual path it takes. Neither of those can be confidently forecast at this time due to high disagreement among weather models. Hopefully we’ll get some more agreement in time for our morning blog tomorrow. Just plan on a fairly wet period developing along with cooler temperatures. Depending on surface temperatures and the track of the low pressure we may see some winter weather issues in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas on Sunday into Monday. Again, low confidence precludes any sort of precipitation type or accumulation forecast at this juncture.

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The recent dry spell means the risk of flooding will be fairly low next week. Rain amounts are not expected to get high enough to produce flash flooding, but we’ll keep an eye on data since totals could go up. Either way, we’re not expecting much of a severe thunderstorm or flash flooding threat. This will be one of our more typical winter-rains. Cool, wet, and with some wind.

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David Reimer

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