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Severe Storms in Southeast Texas Later Today/This Evening

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an elevated, or category 2, risk of severe weather across parts of Southeast Texas for the late afternoon through the nighttime hours. This risk runs along and south of a El Campo to Conroe to Zavalla to Milam line. A marginal risk of severe weather extends another 25 miles north/west of that line. What we’re focused on for the potential of severe storms today is the position of a warm front near the coast. Previously it appeared that this front would remain just offshore along with the threat for organized thunderstorms. However, that thinking has changed with short-term, high resolution weather model guidance bringing a rapid recovery of the airmass along the Southeast Texas coast. The strongest storms this afternoon and evening may produce large hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and even the potential for isolated tornadoes.

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The first thunderstorms could begin to develop by the late afternoon hours in the eastern section of the middle Texas coast. From these storms should move east/northeast towards the Houston metro to Galveston by 6-7PM. This may be a situation where the northern half of the Houston metro stays relatively dry while the southern half is dealing with significant weather problems during the evening rush hour. Some storms may be severe with the aforementioned hazards along with the potential of heavy rainfall. I’m not expecting widespread flash flooding issues, but it doesn’t take much rain to cause issues on Houston roadways. Thunderstorms will continue to move northeast this evening into far East Texas and far Southeast Texas. Some of these storms will likely be severe. I encourage folks to have a way to receive severe weather warnings later today and have a plan in case you should need to seek shelter. The highest threat for tornadoes and higher-end severe weather is expected to be in Louisiana tonight, but we cannot rule out isolated tornadoes in Southeast Texas.

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David Reimer

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