We have a wide variety of weather conditions across the state this morning…muggy and foggy along the gulf coast between Victoria, Galveston and Beaumont…and then freezing rain, freezing fog, ice and even some thunder up across the south plains and panhandle region.  The most significant weather impacts today will be across the panhandle where periods of freezing rain will increase throughout the day.  So far, light icing reported across the area this morning has not led to many significant travel impacts, but that’s likely to change as ice continues to build with each passing wave of precipitation.  Temperatures across the panhandle region will be tricky today with temperatures currently hovering right at freezing around Lubbock, and in the upper 20s around Amarillo.  Since the cold front is shallow, areas of heavier precipitation could drag some of warmer air above the frontal layer down closer to the surface which may bring some areas above freezing and that may be enough to inhibit some surface icing.  At any rate, unnecessary travel across the region should be avoided today and tonight, and if you must head out on the roadways, take it slow.  Today’s wave of precipitation will begin to lull later tonight, before ramping back up again by early Sunday with the approach of a strong upper level low.  Here’s an animated look at how the precipitation may shape up today through about 1am Sunday morning:

Temperatures today…quite a wide variance across the state.  Temps down south will be quite spring-like averaging a good 20 degrees above seasonal norms for much of deep south Texas.  Highs across the panhandle will not budge much…rising to just above freezing this afternoon, then fall back to just below freezing overnight.  Central and north central Texas will be sandwiched in between with temperatures staying relatively steady over the next 24 hours.

For tomorrow, with the approach of a strong upper level low, the threat of strong to severe storms will return to the forecast.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Slight Risk of severe weather across much of west central Texas for Sunday.  Storm development is expected to begin by late morning/early afternoon across far west Texas and move east during the day across west central Texas and through central Texas during the overnight hours.  Initial storm development will likely be in clusters with some discrete cells across southwest Texas and the western Hill Country region around the I-10 corridor.  As the storms develop and merge, a squall line is expected to form by mid-to late afternoon within the Slight Risk area. Discrete cells that form across the southern end of the Slight Risk could pose a threat of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two…but the overall risk of tornadoes is pretty low.  Further north across the Slight Risk area, damaging winds and large hail with the squall line will be the greatest threat.

Here’s a look at how the radar is currently expected to shape up Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.  Keep in mind this is just a model forecast, so don’t get too focused on exact placement of storms. We’ll have additional updates out this evening and again tomorrow as the forecast develops.