Things are generally quiet this morning, although that will certainly change later this evening and into the overnight hours. We’ll start off with the winter weather potential in the Texas Panhandle.
The highest amounts of freezing rain and ice tonight will be in the northeastern Texas Panhandle into adjacent sections of Oklahoma. There will be the risk of freezing rain across all of the Panhandle and parts of Northwest Texas tonight through Sunday. Through Sunday the overall ice amounts will range from a trace up to a quarter of an inch across most of the Panhandle. The highest amounts, up to one half inch of ice accumulation, will be possible in the northeastern Panhandle into the weekend. Remember, it only takes a glazing to turn bridges and overpasses into a skating rink. We’ll generally need to see surface temperatures around or below 30 degrees for surface roads to freeze over. Bridges can freeze over at 31-32 degrees.
Our first storm system is moving through today through tonight. We’ll see continued chances of scattered showers this afternoon into tonight. Most activity will generally be light, although a few heavier bursts of rain will be possible with a quick half inch of rain. Precipitation chances increase on Saturday across the northwestern half of Texas. Those chances will continue and spread east on Sunday as our second, stronger storm system arrives. A cool front will push from west to east on Sunday with a potential line of thunderstorms. That front will stall out on Monday with rain chances continuing near and east of that front in the southeastern half of Texas into Tuesday.
There is the potential for a few severe storms on Sunday and Sunday night as a line of thunderstorms fires up. The primary threats from the strongest storms should be hail up to the size of quarters and localized wind gusts over 55 MPH. A tornado is not out of the question. The threat for severe storms will be refined as we get into Saturday and have a look at higher resolution model data and where all the ingredients will set up.
With copious amounts of moisture in place we’ll see a good dose of rainfall across Texas into early next week. A general one to two inches of rain seems possible across the northern half of Texas through Monday night. Some folks will see far less and some folks could see rain totals up to 4 inches. The threat for widespread flash flooding is low, but a few trouble spots may popup on Sunday and Monday. Rivers will probably start seeing higher flows next week as well. Considering we’ve seen dry conditions and some drought popping up this rain should be good news!