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Couple Notes Regarding Tuesday's Severe Storm Potential

2016-11-21_14-34-21

Not much has changed since this morning with our thinking for tomorrow’s severe weather threat. Scattered showers will be possible throughout Tuesday, but we should see the organized thunderstorm development hold off until at least 3-4 PM. After that point a capping inversion will start to weaken as upper level lift increases. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a category 2 risk of severe weather in Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and southern sections of North Texas. This is where the relative highest threat of severe weather will be late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A category 1 severe weather risk includes the remainder of North Texas, the Hill Country, Southeast Texas, East Texas, and Northeast Texas.

Severe thunderstorms are not explicitly likely tomorrow. There are a couple factors working against a widespread severe weather threat. First off is the widespread cloudiness and scattered showers that should be in place most of the day. Those two factors will help keep the atmosphere from becoming more than modestly unstable. A capping inversion will likely hold until upper level forcing increases by the late afternoon/early evening. By that point showers/storms should become fairly widespread quickly – preventing just one or two cells from utilizing the available instability. One factor that does favor severe weather is strong wind shear values. The incoming upper level storm system will bring favorable wind shear for severe thunderstorms. Just because the wind shear is in place doesn’t mean we’ll have many storms that can utilize it. A few storms will probably become strong/severe tomorrow and tomorrow night. The most likely threat from those storms will be wind gusts up to 60-65 MPH. A few storms may also produce hail up to the size of quarters. While a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, the overall tornado threat is expected to remain very low. Locally heavy rains will also be possible tomorrow night with brief street flooding possible. See our morning blog post for more detailed information on the rain forecast and the weather as we head into the second half of the week.

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David Reimer

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