Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving north across the Middle Texas Coast, Southeast Texas, East Texas, and back west into South-Central and South Texas. Reported flash flooding has been localized this afternoon to just east of the San Antonio metro from Karnes City to Smiley. The good news is precipitation in that general area has weakened considerably since lunch. The heaviest activity now extends from Sinton to near Victoria to near Bay City. All of this activity is moving north.
Moisture levels remain quite high and supportive of very heavy rains from the most intense activity south of a stationary front. Rain rates over 2 inches per hour are possible from the heaviest showers this afternoon. The best chance for the heaviest rains will be in the Middle Texas Coast into South-Central Texas. Localized flash flooding will be possible where we see multiple inches of rain fall in a few hour period. The threat of flash flooding is enhanced in areas that saw heavy rains yesterday and this morning. Further east isolated activity is moving back on-shore in Southeast Texas – which could impact the Houston metro at some point. Light rain is falling in both San Antonio and Austin, but is much lighter than what fell this morning. Unless activity increases in intensity flash flooding is not an imminent threat in AUS/SAT.
Rain intensity and coverage is anticipated to decrease by 7-9 PM as the atmosphere starts to stabilize. Current indications are that a repeat of last night’s overnight heavy rain should not materialize tonight. Isolated to scattered showers could indeed continue into the night south of a line from Interstate 20 in the Permian Basin, through the big Country, North Texas, and into Northeast Texas. Unless we see an unexpected intensity increase in rain tonight the risk of flash flooding should be lower/minor.