After several days of organizing we finally have a defined low-level circulation with Invest 97L. As such this system is now upgraded to Tropical Storm Earl with 50 MPH sustained winds. The reason we skipped over a tropical depression is because the wave already had winds of tropical storm force. Earl becomes the fifth named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The good news is for us this system will not impact our weather. We could see a few showers in the Rio Grande Valley later this week if moisture is able to advect far enough north. Otherwise an increase in waves/surf can be expected on the coast by Thursday and Friday.

Earl is moving west quickly and will make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula sometime tomorrow. From there the system may make it into the Bay of Campeche before hitting Mexico for a second time. The high pressure set up over Texas, responsible for our lovely heat, will keep this system well south of the United States. Conditions are favorable for some strengthening and Earl may be near hurricane strength tomorrow before making landfall.

175910W5_NL_sm

TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

…EARL A LITTLE STRONGER…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.3N 80.8W
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO, SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER
* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO,
SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE CENTER OF EARL WILL BE MOVING
VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE EARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE TONIGHT, MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS, AND WILL REACH MEXICO AND BELIZE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN
IN MEXICO AND BELIZE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL: EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL OVER JAMAICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE, HONDURAS, GUATEMALA, AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO, WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 16 INCHES IN MEXICO AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.