Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This disorganized system is located 125 miles northwest of Cozumel with maximum sustained winds up to 35 MPH. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood. TD #3 is moving north at 8 MPH and will turn northeast and accelerate tonight. Slight strengthening is forecast before landfall tomorrow and we should have Tropical Storm Colin later today. As a whole this will be a rain-maker type event for Florida with little in the way of wind-related impacts. Coastal flooding and isolated tornadoes will be hazards in addition to heavy rains. As for Texas this system will cause no impacts. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD3 this afternoon and provide a better assessment of the cyclone’s organization.

150021W_NL_sm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 88.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern
South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the
depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend
area Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tida cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Serive forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon.

TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.