A line of showers and thunderstorms is progressing south across the Concho Valley and Hill Country this morning. These storms are not severe and are mainly occuring right behind a southward progressing outflow boundary. That means we’re not too worried about a damaging wind threat although I can’t rule out a few instances of hail this morning. The strongest storm was located near Brady and is progressing southeast. This activity could push into Central Texas over the next hour or two. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, small hail, wind gusts up to 40 MPH, and localized street flooding is possible. Moderate rain is falling across southwest North Texas including Cisco, Comanche, Stephenville, and now Granbury. Some of this rain may make it into D/FW over the next hour but will be on the light side of the spectrum.
The Storm Prediction Center has broad stroked a category 1 severe weather risk – a marginal risk – across the Hill Country, Central Texas, into East Texas today. This risk covers the complex of storms moving south through the Hill Country this morning along with more isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Unlike the past couple of days the atmosphere won’t be nearly as unstable. The complex of storms this morning should have a partial stabilizing effect on the atmosphere. Wind shear values remain mediocre for organized storms which also works against a more organized severe weather threat. Isolated storms may pop up this afternoon which would act like ‘popcorn’ storms we’re used to in the summer months. A few instances of quarter size hail or wind gusts up to 50-60 MPH could occur with the strongest activity today. Isolated activity will be possible this evening across Southwest Texas into Far West Texas. Otherwise we’ll get to enjoy a relatively quiet night in the state. The same goes for the daytime hours Friday.
A cold front will move into the Texas Panhandle during the late afternoon and evening hours Friday. The combination of that front and an increasing low-level jet may be enough to cause thunderstorms to develop. Some of the storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. We’ll continue to refine this possibility and post an update later today with the severe weather outlook.