The cold front that arrived yesterday evening has stalled out just north of the coast from Brownsville curving back to the northwest up into the Permian Basin region. Outflow from yesterday’s convection along the coast has left boundaries across the areas south of the stalled front which will become a focus for additional rain and storm development this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, isolated strong storms within the widespread area of rain may produce locally heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding. Across west Texas, strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across the higher elevations west of the Pecos and down into the Big Bend region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Slight Risk across this area to cover this potential. As we get into the overnight hours, this activity across west Texas will become better organized and develop into a convective system which will move east/southeast into south central Texas. This slow moving area of storms will bring a threat of heavy rainfall overnight across south central Texas during the overnight and early morning hours on Monday with the threat of isolated flooding issues.
Highest concentration of rainfall today and tonight is expected to be across the region just south of San Antonio to just north of Corpus Christi. Hard to pinpoint exactly who within this region will be most heavily impacted, but anyone within this region will have the potential to see these slow moving overnight storms drop quite a bit of rain by early tomorrow. It’s likely that we’ll see a Flash Flood Watch issued later today for this portion of the state and we’ll have that update out once it becomes available.
Highs today once again cooler than typical for mid May across much of the state due to lingering widespread cloud cover and yesterday’s front. As the front will be dissipating and southerly winds will bring a rather rapid return of moisture overnight into tomorrow, highs on Monday will be quite a bit warmer and closer to what we expect to see this time of the year.