Shortly after 8 AM we were monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms across northern sections of North Texas into Texoma. Isolated showers with a few lightning strikes are underway in Northeast Texas. Some of these storms were severe earlier this morning in the Big Country with hail up to the size of quarters. The threat of severe weather has diminished this morning. I don’t anticipate much in the way of severe weather issues through lunchtime with this morning activity. It should all continue to move east/northeast which will then lead into our afternoon event behind this morning activity. This afternoon’s forecast is fairly conditional on clouds clearing out by early afternoon ahead of the dryline in North Texas. For skies to clear by early afternoon we’ll need to see this morning convection moving out of the area by late morning. If we see the rain and clouds hold tough through the mid-afternoon hours the probability of additional severe weather will be lower. There are a couple conditional solutions that could play out this afternoon. I encourage you to check back early this afternoon for the latest forecast updates. We should have a better idea of what will play out by that point.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed Northeast Texas in an enhanced risk of severe weather this afternoon and early this evening. This enhanced risk is a category 3 on a 5 scale system. The standard category 2 risk runs along and east of a Gainesville-Arlington-Mexia-Huntsville-Jasper line. A category 1 marginal severe weather risk includes Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas for the late afternoon and early evening hours. Our primary focus will be on eastern sections of North Texas and Northeast Texas this afternoon and evening. Assuming we do see clouds clear out by lunchtime ahead of the dryline the atmosphere should be unstable enough to support organized thunderstorms by the late afternoon hours. Wind shear values will be on the increase this afternoon in both the lower levels and upper levels of the atmosphere. Conditions could become favorable for the development of severe weather – including the threat of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes.
The severe weather threat would increase after 2-3 PM just east of the dryline. Current projections have the dryline located near I-35/I-35E. The threat of thunderstorms will be along and east of the dryline. If we see the dryline remain further west the threat of severe weather will likewise shift west. If the dryline surges further east the threat of severe weather will be entirely east of the D/FW metroplex. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop in the open warm-sector across Northeast Texas after 3 PM. These storms would fire up well east of the dryline and would not be related to that. These storms – should they develop – could also be severe.