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Isolated Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon; More Storms Likely Overnight

The widespread convection that occurred over the Concho Valley, North Texas, and Central Texas overnight has stabilized the atmosphere. This morning surface dewpoint values are noticeably lower with various outflow boundaries causing a muddled surface pattern. This stabilization effect has reduced confidence int eh possibility of multiple afternoon severe thunderstorms. Nevertheless isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible after 3 PM this across across the Big Country and North Texas. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop late tonight in those same regions into Northwest Texas as lift increases. Some of those storms tonight could be severe with a threat of large hail up to the size of golfballs and localized wind gusts over 60 MPH. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Big Country and North Texas in a category 2 risk of severe weather for late this afternoon through late tonight. This includes Abilene, Graham, Eastland, Brownwood, D/FW, Sherman, and Paris. The strongest storms could produce hail up to the size of golfballs and localized wind gusts over 65 MPH. If confidence increases in the atmosphere becoming more suitable for severe thunderstorm development this afternoon we could see the outlook tweaked a bit. In all likelihood the loudest storms will be tonight as we could see several of them develop. Not all storms will be severe today or tonight. Wind shear levels in the atmosphere are fairly weak with storms being more ‘pulse’ or ‘popcorn’ in nature. Outflow boundaries from storms last night could help locally enhance dynamics and that’s where we’ll be watching for a few severe weather reports today. Without any legitimate source of upper-level lift we’ll be watching outflow boundaries and mesoscale (local) features to help initiate thunderstorms. That means we can’t provide a time estimate except to say isolated storms this afternoon with a better chance overnight.

2016-05-11_8-49-54

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David Reimer

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