2016-04-18_9-50-41

The Storm Prediction Center has placed South Texas, the Middle Texas Coast, and the Rio Grande Valley in a standard category 2 severe weather risk for the late afternoon and evening hours. Morning weather model guidance suggests the atmosphere will become moderately unstable this afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. With dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s the atmosphere will certainly be locked and loaded with energy. Wind shear values will also be supportive of organized thunderstorms. We’ll likely see thunderstorm initiation south of Interstate 10 by the late afternoon hours. Storms will slowly progress south into South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this evening. Initial storms may be supercellular with a threat of large hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Eventually storms should congeal into a cluster or line by mid-evening and move south. With time the severe weather threat should become spotty hail and localized 60+ MPH wind gusts. Flash flooding will also be possible due to the slow storm movement and heavy rainfall rates.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 7 PM this evening.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 7 PM this evening.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 10 PM this evening.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 10 PM this evening.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 12 AM this evening.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 12 AM this evening.