Potential rain accumulation through Wednesday morning

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase late this afternoon and evening on both sides of a cold front. The threat for severe weather will be confined to areas along and south of the cold front across South-Central Texas and the Middle Texas Coast. Overall rain amounts up to one and a half inch may fall across South-Central and Southeast Texas tonight. I can’t rule out a few minor areas of urban flooding but I don’t expect we’ll have flooding issues until this weekend and early next week. Rain coverage may be on the increase by dinnertime across the Big Country. That area of rain/storms would move east into the I-35 corridor from South Texas all the way up into North Texas. A few storms north of the cold front may be strong with periods of small hail. The threat of large hail will be highest in the level 2 – elevated risk area as designated by the Storm Prediction Center.

Severe thunderstorms will likely form in the higher elevations of Northern Mexico this afternoon. Those storms would move east into South-Central Texas, near Del Rio to Eagle Pass, around 5-7 PM. Those storms may be severe with large hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and a low-end threat of a tornado. Those storms may congeal into a small cluster and move east towards the middle coast late tonight. There is a conditional threat that additional severe storms may form late tonight in the Coastal Plains and Middle Texas Coast. If that potential becomes more likely we may see an elevated risk (level 2) extended east to account for that possibility. Those storms would be in an enviornment supportive of low-level rotation and a threat for a few tornadoes. We’ll keep an eye on trends through the afternoon and refine that risk.

11Z HRRR – Simulated radar around 7 PM this evening.

11Z HRRR – Simulated radar around midnight tonight.