The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of Northwest Texas to a level 3 – enhanced risk of severe weather. The primary timeframe for severe thunderstorms will be after 4 PM and through 11 PM. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form between 3 and 5 PM across the Rolling Plains of West Texas. Those storms will move northeast into a more unstable airmass. Its likely we’ll see at least one dominant supercell take form by 6-7 PM. High resolution weather models have been strongly hinting at a significant supercell moving along the Red River from near Quanah to Wichita Falls early this evening. The strongest storms could easily produce very large hail – possibly over the size of tennis-balls. Storms will be high-based this afternoon since the temperature/dewpoint spread will be high. As temperatures start to cool near and after sunset we could see a tornado threat develop with any dominant supercells in progress. I believe the highest threat for a tornado or two will be along the Red River in Northwest Texas and into Southwest Oklahoma. Since storms will be moving east/northeast the severe weather threat should shift mainly into Oklahoma after 10 PM. A level 1 – marginal risk of severe weather is in place across the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, and locations along/west of I-35 from the Red River south to Laredo. We could see a few hailers tonight but those storms are expected to be comparatively weaker than activity this afternoon in Northwest Texas. The strongest storms this evening across South Texas may produce hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH.
Jenny, Paige, and I will all be chasing in Northwest Texas/Southwest Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. That means our weather blog may be more quiet during the event since we’ll be chasing. Once we get on a storm we’ll post a link to our live stream here to our blog and on our social media accounts.