Since the hype train has taken off on the internets about next week’s storm setup it looks like we need to address some of the rumors.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the potential for an isolated severe weather threat late Saturday afternoon and evening across the Texas Panhandle. If storms can develop a few may be severe with a hail threat. We may see a few showers/storms on Sunday but this upcoming Tuesday and Thursday could both be active with severe weather risks.
At this juncture we’re simply too far out to tell how significant the severe weather threats may become. There are factors such as cap strength and where the strongest upper level lift will be located each day. The potential for significant severe weather is possible on Tuesday across Kansas and Oklahoma where a regional severe weather outbreak is possible with tornadoes. That potential is less certain in North Texas as there are signs the cap may keep thunderstorms from developing. If we do have storms develop off the dryline on Tuesday they would likely be severe and capable of producing all modes of severe weather.
Thursday could also be active in the severe weather department in Northwest and North Texas. Understand that this is spring in Texas. We deal with severe weather risks. Risks that look significant 5-7 days out can change and poop out as time gets closer. The synoptic upper air pattern next week is one that has produced significant outbreaks in the Plains – but that doesn’t mean the threat will extend south into Texas.
Other weather organizations will likely be hyping next week’s storm potential to get attention which is irresponsible 5+ days out. I encourage you to ignore the hype and just keep tuned to a trusted weather source for information.
Could next week feature significant severe weather in Texas? Yes. Is it a guarantee? Absolutely not. We’ll keep you updated on the latest forecasts as we get into the weekend. Follow your local National Weather Service office for the latest weather forecast as well.