The upper level low seen on water vapor imagery below will remain nearly stationary over the western US for the next several days. This will continue to generate periods of heavy rain and storms across the state until the middle of this week. The rainfall outlook for the remainder of this week looks impressive with upwards of 8 to 10 inches possible across parts of southeast Texas and accumulations averaging 4+ inches across parts of north, northeast and east Texas.
The area of storms crawling north and south along the I-35 corridor today is expected to slowly shift east this evening with parts of south central Texas still under the gun for the threat of scattered strong to severe storms into the late evening hours. An outflow boundary from current storms across the region is pushing west and this may help generate additional rain and scattered storms through the evening hours. The tornado threat is low, but cannot be ruled out. The main threats remain quarter size hail, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall within the current clusters of storms across the region.
The Storm Prediction Center has reduced the Slight Risk to encompass a much smaller area this evening including the cities of San Antonio, New Braunfels, Johnson City, Fredericksburg, Kerrville, Boerne, Bandera, Hondo, Pearsall, Jourdanton and Tillson. As mentioned above, this region of the state will carry the greatest threat for seeing scattered strong to severe storms through the late evening hours. Further north, an outflow boundary from morning convection across north Texas has pushed south and east of the DFW metroplex which has left this region cooler, more stable and less prone to seeing much of a threat of severe weather this evening. Scattered showers with training bands of heavy rain is expected to continue west of the DFW metroplex, and along and east of the I-35 corridor across central and south central Texas through tonight.
Here’s a look at the latest model forecast for additional precipitation this evening through tomorrow at 6am. Not everyone will pick up multiple inches of rain, but wherever training lines of storms form, these areas could easily see a good 1 to 3+ additional inches of rain, with isolated higher totals in excess of 8 inches.
For tomorrow, the severe weather outlook continues to highlight parts of south central and southwest Texas. The Slight Risk region tomorrow stretches between Victoria west to Nuevo Laredo including Corpus Christi and surrounding communities. Tomorrow’s threat of severe weather is expected to be similar to day with quarter size hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two. Overall, the greatest threat will be the continuing heavy rainfall and flooding.