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Numerous Severe Storms with Tornadoes Possible Today!

A complex forecast continues today but confidence is increasing we may be dealing with a severe weather event in the making. The atmosphere along and east of Highway 281 has become very unstable. A low pressure area near Snyder, TX has allowed low-level wind shear to become impressive across much of the eastern half of Texas. We already have storms beginning to develop in East Texas due to a weak cap – which is in the process of collasping completely. With a weak cap and ascent across most of North, Central, and East Texas we could see storms fire up after 1-2 PM in pretty much anywhere. While the dryline will potentially fire up supercells in Northwest Texas and western North Texas today the warm-sector well east of the dryline could fire up storms nearly anywhere. For this reason we can’t specifically tell you when storms will impact your area. This won’t be a line or complex of storms moving from one location to another. We could be dealing with supercells in Texoma this afternoon while also dealing with supercells in Central and East Texas. I do believe we will see activity start picking up after 2 PM and a tornado watch isn’t far away most likely.

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The Storm Prediction Center has expanded a category 3 severe weather risk to include all of North Texas, Northeast Texas, Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley. All modes of severe weather are possible with storms today – including tornadoes. I emphasis that unlike most of our events in Texas these storms could pop up just about anywhere due to the weak cap today. A category 2 severe weather risk includes South-Central Texas and Southeast Texas. Please don’t base your expectations today from what happened on Tuesday. Have your severe weather safety plan ready to go this afternoon as storms could quickly intensify once they get going. A squall line will likely fire up in Northeast/East/Southeast Texas this evening with a threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

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David Reimer

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