The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service offices will coordinate a tornado watch for the Texas Panhandle over the next hour. Conditions are coming together to support the possibility of a rather substantial severe weather threat in the Texas Panhandle this evening. Multiple supercells capable of producing baseball size hail will likely begin developing by 5 PM across the western Panhandle. As they move east into an enviornment with higher moisture the cloud bases will lower. Strong low-level wind shear will support the possibility of tornadoes this evening.

mcd0385

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES…SERN CO…FAR
ERN NM

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151938Z – 152145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…95 PERCENT

SUMMARY…THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SVR MODES IS
INCREASING…AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED PRIOR TO
21Z.

DISCUSSION…A DRYLINE IS SHARPENING FROM SERN CO SWD ALONG THE W
TX/ERN NM BORDER. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGING OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED DRYLINE SOLENOIDS TO
FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
20-22Z TIME FRAME. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE E OF THE DRYLINE
SURMOUNTED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.8 C/KM SAMPLED BY THE 18Z
AMA RAOB WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING
YIELDING ROBUST CONVECTION. INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO 40-50
KT ORIENTED WITH AN ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL ALONG WITH SVR WIND
GUSTS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH — ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNSET — WILL
SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL…AS WELL — LASTING INTO THE EVENING
DESPITE THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS CONVECTION SPREADS
EWD/NEWD.