After several days of temperatures well below seasonal averages, we had a nice warm-up today, and we are expecting even warmer summer-like temperatures tomorrow! The western half of the state will be the warmest with highs in the mid 80s approaching 90 degrees by tomorrow afternoon. It’s likely that we’ll see a few record highs broken in parts of the panhandle and west Texas. Winds will also increase tomorrow with sustained winds in the 25-35mph range likely, with gusts exceeding 45mph. Blowing dust across the caprock region and high fire danger will continue to be a concern Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Across the far west Texas Trans Pecos, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains regions, winds will be even stronger with sustained winds between 30-50mph and gusts near 70 by tomorrow afternoon. Red Flag Warnings across these regions will remain in place through Tuesday evening. Any grass fire that ignites across this region tomorrow has the potential to spread rapidly and uncontrollably. Outdoor burning is absolutely discouraged, and please take extra precautions with any machinery or materials which could cause a spark or flame!
Highs tomorrow will soar across west Texas and the panhandle region with mid 80s to low 90s by the afternoon. These forecast highs are a good 20 degrees above seasonal averages. Further east, cooler but still a few degrees above where we should be. Conditions will be breezy across central and north Texas tomorrow afternoon, but this portion of the state will not be experiencing the excessively windy conditions that west Texas will see.
Severe weather chances return to the state Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night in advance of our next cold front. The dryline will race east across west central Texas on Wednesday eventually stalling out along or near the I-35 corridor by Wednesday afternoon with scattered storms initiating along and east of the dryline by Wednesday evening. A capping inversion should quell storm development most of the day, but as a strong upper level disturbance approaches Wednesday afternoon, this should be sufficient to lift the cap and allow storms to begin development. The locations at most risk for isolated to scattered severe storms is across parts of north central and northeast Texas late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night with the greatest threats being damaging winds and large hail. There will also be a threat of a couple of isolated tornadoes. The window of opportunity for any tornadoes to develop will be out ahead of the front during the afternoon as we reach peak heating. This threat is very low however, but it’s not completely zero either. Any rain that develops out ahead of the front will move quickly east which will decrease the risk of any flooding issues. We’ll have more specifics on the severe weather threat tomorrow and again on Wednesday morning, so be sure to check back!
Here is a first look at the timing of the cold front. The front is anticipated to move through the panhandle region by late afternoon on Wednesday. By midnight Wednesday, the front is expected to be moving through north central and west central Texas. By 7am Thursday morning, the front will be making its way off the coast and across deep south Texas. Winds will be gusty and from the north/northwest immediately behind the front, but should settle down several hours after the front has passed.